5 Forces Shaping the 2026 Nonprofit Fundraising Outlook

Nonprofits are heading into 2026 on uneven ground. Some communities are stabilizing, while others are still carrying the weight of financial strain, burnout and rapid shifts in how people connect and give. Sector research and conversations I’ve had with thousands of practitioners keep surfacing this same pattern.

As I transition out of a long-term role in nonprofit technology, I have had the space to step back and look at the broader environment without focusing on any single platform or product. So I reflected on what fundraisers themselves are describing, what the national data shows and what community leaders say they need. These five predictions offer a practical view of how nonprofits can prepare for 2026 with clarity and steady decision-making.

1. Grassroots Energy Will Outpace Institutional Strategy

Trust continues to shift toward local groups, mutual aid networks, and community-rooted efforts. National surveys, including Independent Sector’s recent trust research, show that people have more confidence in the people and organizations in their local communities than in large national institutions such as big business, the news media and the federal government. This pattern is especially pronounced among younger adults, who report high trust in peers, neighbors, nonprofits and local government but far lower trust in major institutions. For many communities of color, trust is often built first through local organizations, faith communities and mutual aid networks rather than through national systems.

This is a structural change in how people solve problems, not a passing trend. Grassroots organizations communicate faster, adapt quicker and earn trust through proximity. Yet resources have not kept pace. Many of the groups closest to community needs operate with minimal staff and limited funding. In 2026, expect more local collaborations and community-owned narratives. The question will be whether funding infrastructure can keep up with the creativity and urgency coming from the ground.

2. Belonging Will Become the Core Driver of Engagement

Loneliness and social fragmentation are reshaping how people seek connection. Recent federal data show that about half of U.S. adults report experiencing loneliness. Research from the American Psychological Association links loneliness and social isolation to poorer mental health and social outcomes. These shifts matter for nonprofits because belonging has become one of the strongest predictors of donor retention.

Supporters who feel personally connected to an organization are more likely to stay involved year over year. Identity-driven communities on platforms like Discord and TikTok continue to grow, especially among Gen Z. But belonging is not evenly distributed. Communities with histories of marginalization expect cultural fluency, authenticity and transparency. Organizations that meet these expectations earn deeper loyalty. The work of 2026 will require nonprofits to create real connection, not just message into the void.

3. Economic Strain Will Shape Generosity Beneath the Surface

Even as broad economic indicators look steady, the household picture tells a different story. Recent Federal Reserve data show that 40% of Americans would have difficulty covering a $400 emergency expense without borrowing, selling something or skipping the payment. Credit card debt has passed $1 trillion, with delinquency highest among younger adults and lower-income families.

Fundraising Effectiveness Project data reflects the same tension. Donor counts are falling while total dollars remain relatively flat. A smaller group of donors is carrying more of the financial weight. At the same time, inflation and housing pressure continue to hit Black, Indigenous, immigrant and rural communities hardest. This affects both giving and the financial stability of grassroots organizations.

People are still generous. They are simply stretched. As budgets tighten, expect more small, steady gifts and more non-monetary involvement. Fundraisers will need clearer impact stories and steadier engagement strategies to maintain donor confidence.

4. Artificial Intelligence Will Become Routine, But Equitable Adoption Will Determine Who Benefits

Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming part of daily nonprofit workflow. Nearly three-quarters of nonprofit leaders are already using AI — with most relying on it for copywriting, and growing numbers using it for prospect research, task automation and personalization, according to NonProfit PRO’s “2025 Nonprofit Leadership Impact Study.” 

But adoption is uneven. Leaders of smaller organizations and nonprofit leaders of color have barriers ranging from unclear value to concerns about bias, privacy and long-term sustainability.

These concerns are based in evidence, not anxiety. Communities that have already experienced harm from past technologies have good reason to be wary of AI systems and the content they generate. Platforms increasingly rely on AI to determine what gets surfaced or suppressed, raising the risk that organizations with more data capacity will gain visibility while others fall behind.

AI can reduce burnout and increase efficiency. It can also reinforce inequity if adoption outpaces governance. The organizations that benefit in 2026 will be the ones that use AI intentionally, with clear training, safeguards and accountability.

5. ‘Rebuilding’ Will Replace ‘Return to Normal’ As The Sector’s Main Narrative

Nonprofits are moving away from crisis response and toward long-term rebuilding. Independent Sector’s “2024 Health of the U.S. Nonprofit Sector” highlights workforce well-being, public trust and community connection as central indicators of the sector’s overall health and impact. Donors mirror this trend. Community repair and resilience are among the fastest-growing funding areas in donor-advised funds.

But communities are rebuilding from different starting points. The pandemic, climate disruptions and economic strain did not hit every community equally. Some organizations are still in recovery mode while others have moved ahead. The nonprofits that succeed in 2026 will be the ones that take a steady approach to repair, invest in consistent engagement, and focus on long-term stability rather than visibility.

What This Means for 2026

Taken together, these predictions show a sector navigating fragmentation, financial strain, and increasing pressure on fundraisers. But they also show a path forward. Organizations that stay grounded in equity, communicate with clarity, and adopt technology responsibly will be better positioned to earn trust and build durable relationships.

If the sector meets these realities with steadiness and honesty, 2026 can be more than another year of adaptation. It can be a year of building a healthier, more resilient nonprofit ecosystem.

The preceding content was provided by a contributor unaffiliated with NonProfit PRO. The views expressed within may not directly reflect the thoughts or opinions of the staff of NonProfit PRO.