Fundraising looked better in the first quarter of 2026 — dollars up, donor losses slowing — but that recovery is resting on a narrower base of existing and, in some cases, recaptured donors rather than on growth driven by new-donor acquisition and first-year donor conversions.
The latest Fundraising Effectiveness Project quarterly report estimates that, through the first quarter of 2026, total dollars raised increased 4.3% year over year while donor counts fell 0.8% and overall donor retention held at 18%, but slightly below 2024’s 18.2%. Based on data from 3.2 million donors who gave $3.5 billion to 15,700 organizations, the report frames this as encouraging, but not a signal that the donor-loss crisis is over.
“The easing in donor losses and broader-based growth this quarter are genuinely encouraging signs after several difficult years, but they shouldn’t be mistaken for a full recovery,” Woodrow Rosenbaum, chief data officer of GivingTuesday, said in a statement.
Growth May Be Partly Borrowed
Despite a period of strong revenue growth, there are some caveats about where that strength came from. Total dollars raised were down from 5.4% a year earlier and 10.4% in the first quarter of 2024 — marking the third consecutive first quarter with positive growth, but also the third in a row where the rate of increase has decelerated.
Researchers believe some donors likely accelerated gifts from year-end 2025 — ahead of anticipated tax law changes that took effect in 2026 — effectively borrowing dollars instead of generating entirely new gifts. As a result, they warn the second half of 2026 could be tougher, particularly if year-end giving in 2026 doesn’t stack on top of those accelerated 2025 gifts.
“Regardless of the cause, it’s worth reinforcing messages around impact, need and the importance of sustained support now before you’re relying on them under pressure,” researchers wrote. “What would a softer second half mean for your budget, and what are you doing now to prepare?”
Donor Loss Eases Via Existing and Recaptured Donors
Even though losses are slowing, the donor base is still shrinking. In past years, donor counts had slipped by as much as 6% year over year, but by the first quarter of 2025, the drop had narrowed to 2.3%. This year’s 0.8% decline through March suggests donor loss may be flooring out, at least for now.
Existing donors are driving that stabilization, not new ones. Researchers found the growth in donor counts is concentrated among people who were already in organizations’ files, while new donor acquisition continues to lag.
Recaptured donors add a concentrated boost — their dollars jumped 19.7% and now represent a sizeable share of revenue. However, much of that increase comes from a small set of recaptured gifts from supersized donors — those giving more than $50,000.
“The sector hasn’t returned to donor growth, but this may indicate that the steep donor losses of recent years are starting to level off,” researchers wrote. “Look at your own numbers: Are you seeing a similar plateau, and what’s your plan for turning stabilization into sustained growth through stronger acquisition and retention strategies?”
Micro Donors Shrink as Higher Value Donors Grow
In contrast to earlier reports where supersize and major donors — those giving $5,000 to $50,000 — were almost entirely responsible for revenue growth, the first quarter of 2026 shows gains in donor counts and dollars spread across multiple tiers. Only micro donors — those giving $1 to $100 — still experienced declines, down 2.5% in both headcount and dollars.
“It may reflect, at least in part, the sector’s growing investment in mid-level donor programs with more personalization, stewardship and relationship-building,” researchers wrote. “We can’t attribute the improvement solely to these efforts, but the results are consistent with that growing strategic focus.”
Retention, however, is moving in the opposite direction. Researchers found donor retention fell across most donor tiers in the first quarter of 2026, while micro donors were the only group where retention improved — jumping modestly to 10%. That means donors contributing most of the revenue are slightly less likely to repeat giving than they were a year ago. Meanwhile, the lowest-value donors — who still represent the largest share (57%) of the file by headcount — became marginally more loyal, even as their numbers and dollars continued to drop.
New-Donor Conversion Lags
Repeat retained donors now contribute the majority of dollars, while newer donors’ dollars are shrinking. Repeat retained donors are contributing about 61% of all dollars, and their giving grew more than 7% year over year despite decreased overall donor counts. That stabilization comes from people who already crossed the second‑gift threshold.
Unchanged year over year, the sector’s retention rate looks deceptively steady, but its weakness lies in new-donor conversion. With counts for new and new retained donors (first‑time donors last year who gave again this year) continuing to slide, it’s become clearer many donors give once and never return.
“The more urgent priority is converting new donors into repeat givers — including locking in monthly-sustainer commitments at the point of acquisition — since aggregate retention gains won’t offset a persistently weak first-to-second-gift conversion rate,” researchers wrote.
Researchers also suggest stewarding those donors immediately after acquisition. A recurring donor relationship not only improves long-term retention but also donor lifetime value.
“Over the past year, the Fundraising Effectiveness Project data has consistently pointed to the need for nonprofits to expand their donor base and strengthen engagement beyond their largest supporters,” Ann Hale, CFRE, executive vice president of the AFP Foundations for Philanthropy, said in a statement. “This quarter’s findings suggest encouraging signs in retention and stewardship, even as new donor acquisition remains a challenge. The opportunity now is to build on that momentum during the year-end giving season by focusing not only on acquiring donors, but on strengthening donor stewardship and creating clear pathways for deeper, long-term engagement.”
